Modeling Terrorist Activity


Modeling terrorist activity is important for a variety of reasons. Accurate models can help aid in decision making and potentially reduce the losses that are incurred. Many of the current models attempt to profile a terrorist organization and predict when and where events are likely to occur. Some models also attempt to identify the perpetrators involved in an event.

Project Description

Perform a literature review to assess the current state of the art in modeling and predicting terrorist activity. The review should include:

Also be sure to keep all of the references to submit with your final technical paper, the primary deliverable at the end of the semester.

Some places to start are provided below. Books can be obtained/requested (perhaps through interlibrary loan) from Pace University libraries.


  1. Are global terrorist attacks time-correlated?
  2. Self-exciting hurdle models for terrorist activity
  3. Terrorism and Political Violence
  4. Generating Terrorism Event Databases
  5. The Global Terrorism Database: Accomplishments and Challenges
  6. Detecting, tracking, and counteracting terrorist networks via hidden Markov models
  7. Identifying Terrorist Activity with AI Plan Recognition Technology
  8. Assessing and Comparing Data Sources for Terrorism Research